ProbabilityTree Basic

Problem - 2732

A bug crawls from $A$ along a grid. It never goes backward, it crawls towards all the other possible directions with equal probability. For example:

  • At $A$, it may crawl to either $B$ or $D$ with a 50-50 chance
  • At $E$ (coming from $D$), it may crawl to $B$, $F$, or $H$ with a $\frac{1}{3}$ chance each
  • At $C$ (coming from $B$), it will crawl to $F$ for sure

The questions are, from $A$:

  • What is the probability of it landing at $E$ in 2 steps?
  • What is the probability of it landing at $F$ in 3 steps?
  • What is the probability of it landing at $G$ in 4 steps?

This problem can be solved by the standard tree technique. The answers are $\boxed{\frac{1}{2}}$, $\boxed{\frac{5}{12}}$, and $\boxed{\frac{7}{72}}$, respectively.

  • The bug can travel from $A$ to $E$ in $2$ steps along two paths:

Therefore, the probability is $$\frac{1}{2}\times \frac{1}{2} + \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{2} =\frac{1}{2}$$

The bug can move from $A$ to $F$ in $3$ steps along three paths.

Therefore, the probability is $$\frac{1}{2}\times \frac{1}{2}\times 1 + \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{3}+ \frac{1}{2}\times \frac{1}{2}\times \frac{1}{3}=\frac{5}{12} $$

  • Three paths can lead the bug from $A$ to $G$ in $4$ steps.

Therefore, the probability is $$\frac{1}{2}\times \frac{1}{2}\times \frac{1}{3}\times \frac{1}{3} + \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{3}\times \frac{1}{2}+ \frac{1}{2}\times \frac{1}{2}\times \frac{1}{3}\times \frac{1}{3}=\frac{7}{72}$$



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